TPS on NTM, via @geographyjim and @aseasyasriding
The NTM is now so far away from reality that there must be an urgent review of how this has come about. For example, the results of TfL???s modelling for the Mayor???s strategy shows economic growth and population growth, but no growth in car trips, in Greater London between 2006 and 2031.
Why is this important? Because NTM growth is driven by the idea that a ???saturation??? level of car ownership (in which everyone who wants to, owns a car) will inevitably be achieved at some time in the future. That???s why, whatever happens, the upward trend remorselessly returns. And saturation car ownership depends on saturation levels of licence holding. Low licence holding among the young and middle aged is not the only warning sign that this is no longer realistic ??? there???s the not insignificant issue of how many of those in the oldest age groups will want, or be able, to drive around.
The forecasters also need to understand that there is a parallel but equally important end state called equilibrium (i.e where traffic levels have stabilised). For example, taking into account costs, congestion, availability of alternatives, and the ability to get shopping delivered, people are increasingly deciding not to use the car for the supermarket trip.